The Shutdown Is Over: What Now?
Late on November 12, 2025, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended after 43 days. Although there was a sense of relief for many Americans, the resolution was limited and temporary, with the potential for another battle at the end of January 2026.1
Reopening the government
The legislation that ended the shutdown was a package of bills that included provisions directly related to the shutdown as well as some unrelated provisions that were added to address other issues and/or secure key votes in the Senate. Here are the provisions directly related to the shutdown.
- Funding was extended at current levels for most of the federal government until January 30, 2026. However, funding for the Department of Agriculture, military construction, and the legislative branch was extended for the full fiscal year, until September 30, 2026. This ensures that the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP — sometimes called food stamps), which is administered by the Department of Agriculture, will remain funded in the event of another shutdown this fiscal year. The administration’s refusal to fund SNAP during the shutdown was unprecedented and drew legal challenges.2
- The legislation reversed all federal layoffs initiated during the shutdown, guaranteed that there would be no more mass firings through January 30, and clarified that all federal employees would receive back pay regardless of whether they were furloughed or worked without pay during the shutdown.3
The legislation did not address the extension of expanded subsidies for health care coverage under the Affordable Care Act, which was the primary focus of the shutdown. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune promised a group of Democratic senators who voted to end the shutdown that he would hold a vote on the subsidies by mid-December.4
Although there is bipartisan interest in extending the subsidies in some form, there is no guarantee that the Senate will vote to extend them in a way that is satisfactory to both parties. And as of late November, there was no promise of a vote from House Speaker Mike Johnson. Unless this issue is resolved before the end of January, it’s possible that the government could shut down again.5
Add-on provisions
Provisions added to the legislation and not directly related to the shutdown include: 1) lifting a spending restriction on the District of Columbia; 2) providing additional security funding for legislators, Supreme Court justices, and executive-branch officials; 3) changing the federal definition of hemp to make it illegal to sell mild hemp-based products such as gummies, drinks, vapes, and edibles; 4) providing $400 million for the E-7 Wedgetail radar jet, which connects other aircraft with military ground assets.6
An additional provision allows senators — but not members of the House — to sue the federal government for up to $500,000 if their personal data is collected without their knowledge. Retroactive to 2022, this relates to the Justice Department’s collection of phone records from eight senators during the investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election. On November 19, the House voted unanimously to repeal this provision; the Senate held further discussions, but there was no definite action as of late November.7
Costs and other impacts
The Council of Economic Advisers — charged with providing the president with objective economic analysis — estimated that 60,000 non-federal workers lost their jobs due to the effects of the shutdown. Unlike federal employees, these workers are not guaranteed reinstatement or back pay.8
The Council also estimated that the shutdown cost the U.S. economy about $15 billion per week or about $92 billion in total, which would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 1.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2025.9 Based on past shutdowns, it’s likely that much of this spending will be recovered, which may lead to higher-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026. However, an estimated $11 billion in economic activity was permanently lost. Consumer confidence declined during the shutdown, and it is unknown how that will translate to spending during the holiday season and early 2026.10
Even if federal and consumer dollars flow into the economy, lost productivity cannot be recovered, and it may take months or years for federal employees to catch up on work that was not done during the shutdown. Missed flights impacted lives, as did delays in federal salaries and SNAP payments. At least 670,000 federal employees were furloughed and 730,000 worked without pay.11 The SNAP program helps 42 million Americans with basic food costs. Some states maintained full or partial payments, but others did not, putting millions of poor Americans at risk.12
Many important economic reports were not released due to the shutdown, making it difficult for economists, investors, and consumers to make informed decisions. While some reports have been or will be released late, others may not be released at all, or released with minimal data, because the government was closed during the data collection period. The missing reports came at a particularly challenging time for the Federal Reserve, which has been faced with regulating interest rates in an unusually ambiguous environment, with the job market appearing to slow down while inflation remains stubbornly high.13
Whether the shutdown was worth the consequences depends on your personal point of view, as well as the outcome of the struggle over expanded subsidies for health insurance. Millions of consumers have already seen their insurance premiums skyrocket without the expanded subsidies, and it’s estimated that almost four million will lose coverage each year for the next eight years if they are not extended.14 Whether this and other political conflicts can be resolved without another shutdown remains to be seen.
Estimates are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass.